Copertina Conferenza 4luglio2017Recovery has continued to gather pace in 2016, even though following a rather slow and uncertain development path. Unfortunately, this last year has seen a collapse of exports, which had constituted the main driver of growth in the recent past. Several factors explain this trend, some of which are closely linked to the economic cycle,  and some appear to have a more permanent nature and are likely to characterize our productive sectors for some time yet. The first 2017 data indicate a positive trend reversal, signalling that old and new players (agro-food, fashion, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and so on) are again contributing to a vigorous growth in exports.

The number of employees has been showing a growth since the end of 2015, and the year 2016 has closed with a positive sign – furthermore confirmed by the first figures for 2017 – the increase having concerned almost all productive sectors, especially in manufacturing. Anyway, the current framework, although positive, is not sufficient to cover the overall costs brought about by the protracted past recession.

The forecasts for the future months seem to confirm the positive trend of the previous two-year period, but not at a satisfactory level. It seems obvious that the main problem of our country, in terms of the weak dynamism of international trade, is the low internal demand. Conversely, the climate of trust expressed by families and businesses – established by two special surveys carried out by IRPET – is nourished by a sound realism, and finds little ground for optimism in the economic and social trend for the coming months.

Author: edited by Leonardo Ghezzi and Nicola Sciclone; with the collaboration of Enrico Conti, Tommaso Ferraresi, Maria Luisa Maitino, Donatella Marinari, Renato Paniccià, Valentina Patacchini, Letizia Ravagli and Stefano Rosignoli.

Publication details: IRPET, July 2017