Current State, Risks, and Prospects for the Revival of the Tuscan Economy

Tuscany’s economic situation is part of an international landscape heavily influenced by geopolitical uncertainty, further exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East. The most recent economic picture paints a region that continues to demonstrate significant resilience, yet one that is navigating a phase marked by significant instability and still-moderate growth. In recent years, the region’s economic and social system has weathered—without suffering irreversible damage—a rapid succession of exogenous shocks: from the pandemic crisis to the initial inflationary shock, and on to the most recent trade and geopolitical tensions linked to U.S. tariffs and the renewed surge in prices associated with the conflict in Iran. Tuscany is not currently in a recession: the labor market remains expansionary, gross domestic product remains positive—albeit weakly—and even the fashion sector is showing signs of recovery, such as in overseas sales. At the same time, this overall resilience does not eliminate the vulnerabilities affecting the regional system. Growth—in line with national figures—is weak and varies across sectors, regions, and types of businesses; some components of the production system are struggling to regain margins, competitiveness, and investment capacity; and households continue to face erosion of purchasing power and increased vulnerability. The overall picture thus reveals a mixed picture, in which the resilience demonstrated must serve as the foundation for strengthening productivity, real wages, job quality, investment, and social cohesion. It is within this dual perspective—between resilience and the need for consolidation—that Tuscany’s economic and employment situation must be interpreted.

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Report Editors: L. Ghezzi and N. Sciclone

Working Group: E. Alberti, E. Conti, M. Donati, T. Ferraresi, G. F. Gori, M. L. Maitino, D. Marinari, L. Piccini, L. Ravagli

Editorial Design: E. Zangheri

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