By Donatella Marinari

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The research was carried out by Donatella Marinari within the IRPET’s Area Congiuntura e struttura economica coordinated by Leonardo Ghezzi.

The report presents the main data on criminality at the regional, provincial and provincial capital levels in 2021. In the first year of the pandemic, the restrictive measures imposed by the health emergency led to a sharp reduction in predatory crimes (house burglaries, pickpocketing and robberies). These crimes, which reached the lowest values ​​of the entire historical series in 2020, in 2021 with the easing of the restrictive measures on mobility and social contacts returned to register a slight growth (+12 thousand reports), however remaining much of below the values ​​recorded in the pre-pandemic period (-26 thousand complaints equal to -16%).

The types of crime in decline in both 2020 and 2021 are thefts with dexterity, more than halved in the year of the lock-down, robberies in homes and shops, crimes related to drugs and the exploitation of prostitution. Even the vast group of crimes defined as “other”, 31,000 reports, 21% of the total, is still decreasing.

The trend in the number of crimes reported in the last two years shows differences between the capital cities and the other municipalities in the provinces. On average in the capital municipalities, a lower growth is observed on 2020 and a greater decrease compared to 2019. Half of the number of crimes in 2021 was reported in the provincial capital municipalities, but the latter contributed only 36% to the increase compared to 2020, +4 thousand crimes against +8 in non-capital cities, and 75% to the decrease compared to 2019, -20 thousand complaints against -7 thousand in other municipalities.

Among the cities, Florence is the one that shows an increase in crimes that is among the lowest in 2020 and the greatest reduction compared to 2019. Although the Covid effect on crime is not clearly quantifiable, the 2021 data fit into the picture of the overall reduction in crimes observable since 2013 in all Italian regions. Furthermore, Tuscany is characterized by a low incidence of the most violent predatory crimes, such as muggings and robberies, as well as those against the person, attempted and committed homicides, threats, beatings, intentional injuries.

Even the perception of crime risk by families, measured by ISTAT through the survey “Aspects of daily life”, has been continuously decreasing since 2016 and in 2021 it reaches the lowest value recorded since 2005, only 18.6% of interviewees declare that they perceive, very or fairly, the risk of crime in their area of ​​residence. Increases the perception of safety in walking alone in the evening and decreases the perception of degradation in one’s neighborhood.

Dicitura Bibliografica: IRPET, 2023