Ex-ante analysis of the effects of spending associated with the 2021–2027 ERDF and ESF+ programs on growth and welfare. Please specify the number and any

The study is part of the joint IRPET-Tuscany Region activities for the year 2025 and was commissioned by the ERDF and ESF+ Managing Authorities (Activity No. 4). The research was led by Renato Paniccià of IRPET’s research area on Cross-Sectoral Analysis and Models, Energy, and the Environment. Massimo Donati and Tommaso Ferraresi of IRPET participated in the working group. Winpoll S.r.l.s. conducted the survey of commercial brokerage firms used to supplement the information capacity of the IRPET modeling used. Editing by Elena Zangheri.

The purpose of this report is to analyze the ex-ante impact on growth and welfare of spending from the ERDF and ESF+ funds for 2021–2027 in Tuscany. The evaluation framework and modeling tools used allow for the estimation of only one component of the funds’ overall impact, namely that related to current and investment spending. Within this scope, the analysis highlights a significant contribution by the two funds to the regional economic system. The evaluation was conducted using an interregional SUT-based model. Overall, the results are consistent with the expected dynamics of value-added generation, as the ESF+ is more focused on current expenditure—particularly in terms of in-kind transfers—aimed at supporting inclusion and labor policies, while the ERDF plays a more prominent role in the tangible and intangible investment component, with effects not only of significant activation for Tuscany but also of the capacity to incorporate the envisaged investments (as in the case of R&D) into production processes.

Keep reading