Digitalisation as a factor in repopulating peripheral areas? Some evidence from the Italian case

The topic of territorial imbalances, declined in terms of depopulation of some areas and greater concentration of inhabitants in others, has long captured the interest of researchers and public decision makers. The topic is prominent because of the multiple consequences associated with further demographic polarization. Among the main ones are, in areas of depopulation, the thinning of the active and fertile population base, declining incomes and consumption, lowering of the thresholds of sustainability of the presence of services, the loss of the human garrison function and increased territorial fragility. Conversely, in areas with higher population concentration, the onset of congestion, with the worsening implications for quality of life that this entails.

In the face of awareness of the perverse effects that increasing demographic polarization can bring about, to date there has not yet been enough clarity on the role that certain infrastructures, especially digital infrastructures, have played to date and may play in the future in counteracting the phenomena recalled. In particular, this paper has asked whether the progressive spread of digital infrastructures has been able to counteract, or reverse, the phenomenon of abandonment and depopulation of suburban municipalities, with possible differences between different geographic areas of the country.

Building on these considerations, we first reconstructed the demographic dynamics in historical series of the different territories, distinguishing between urban poles, belts and more peripheral areas. Next, the extent to which intangible accessibility may have been a disincentive to abandonment in some Italian peripheral territories was assessed. The results were obtained by comparing, in a counterfactual approach, types of municipalities belonging to homogeneous categories (obtained on the basis of a series of geographic, demographic and economic covariates), which nevertheless experienced a different degree of digital infrastructure.