Position Paper 48/2026 by L. Ghezzi, M. L. Maitino, L. Piccini, and N. Sciclone
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has already caused significant tensions in the energy markets, leading to increases in the prices of oil, natural gas, and electricity. Assuming a scenario in which the cost of imported energy goods rises by 50% for at least twelve months, IRPET estimates indicate a 1% increase in inflation and a 0.3% decline in GDP.
The effects would also spill over to businesses, impacting production, transportation, and utility costs, and jeopardizing the profitability of approximately 15,000 Tuscan companies. The potential impact on employment would affect over 111,000 workers, with varying degrees of impact across sectors depending on their respective energy intensity.
Households would also face a significant increase, estimated at an average of about 768 euros per year per household: this increase would account for 1.7% of household income and would place a relatively greater burden on households with lower disposable income.
The data cited are not intended to be predictive but rather represent estimates of potential economic effects based on a specific scenario; they should therefore be interpreted with due caution, as a more rapid resolution of the conflict could significantly mitigate these impacts.
