Position Paper 27/2023 by S. Duranti and N. Faraoni
The mismatch between labor supply and demand—that is, the mismatch between economic actors’ demand for personnel and workers seeking employment—can be defined as structural in the Italian labor market, and its recurring presence in public debate is also evident. The causes of the mismatch can be numerous, and the phenomenon itself can take on multiple facets and trends over time. The weakness of the tools that typically facilitate matching between workers and employers, such as active policies, training contracts, and the activities of employment centers, is structurally at the root of its persistence in our country.
In recent years, characterized by the post-pandemic labor market recovery, companies’ difficulties in recruiting staff appear to have further worsened, as often happens in periods of rapid economic recovery (Brunello and Wruuck, 2019). Demographic dynamics may also play a role in the recent growth of the mismatch, as the cohorts entering the labor market are now far fewer than those exiting, represented by the so-called baby boomer generation (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, 2023).
The increasing mismatch between labor supply and demand is confirmed by the results of the Excelsior survey, which has been tracking the hiring intentions of Italian companies for many years. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the share of expected hires with recruitment difficulties has increased in Tuscany by 9 percentage points, from 29% in 2018-2019 to 38% in 2021-2022. Recruitment difficulties affect not only senior management positions but also, and above all, those employed in production processes, both at entry-level (workers) and intermediate (technicians).
The difficulties the production system encounters in finding suitable personnel for its needs can act as a brake on the positive dynamics of the economic cycle, limiting firms’ growth opportunities or slowing their productivity in the case of suboptimal matching that requires significant investments in training (Cedefop, 2010; 2015). Therefore, it is important to investigate the reasons behind the growth of the mismatch phenomenon in recent years, to better direct active policies towards labor demand (minimum wage, contracts), supply (education and training system), and/or the intermediation system (job centers).
With this objective, in June 2023, Irpet conducted a survey of a sample of Tuscan manufacturing and tourism companies to gather information on: i) the difficulties encountered in recruiting, ii) future prospects regarding the so-called digital and ecological transitions.
Follow Silvia Duranti’s speech on the topic on T24 Live del 16/10/2023
