Short term Economic Note 37/2025 by E. Conti
An analysis of tourist movements in Tuscany in the first nine months of 2025 shows two similar trends, although not perfectly overlapping, depending on whether or not the effect of the change in the number of establishments that do not comply with the obligation to report arrivals and overnight stays is taken into account. The share of such establishments grew from 22.1% in the first nine months of 2024 to 29.9% in 2025, inevitably influencing the dynamics of recorded overnight stays. To neutralize the impact of the increased level of non-compliance, it was deemed appropriate to adopt a methodology based on excluding from the analysis those establishments that, in at least one of the first nine months of the years considered (2019, 2024, and 2025), did not comply with the reporting obligation.
The results, adjusted for the effect of non-compliance, confirm the trends already observed in the previous edition of the economic report on the first five months of the year, showing a decrease in tourist arrivals of -1.9% (which falls to -2.5% without adjusting for non-compliance). The contraction appears to be mainly due to the decline in domestic tourism (-2.1%), only partially offset by the growth, albeit very modest, in international tourism (+0.4%).
As regards the various types of accommodation, the reading is less marked, but the non-hotel sector nevertheless remains substantially stable (-0.7%), with the foreign segment performing particularly well (+1.5%). On the other hand, hotel accommodation shows a significant decline (-5.1%), involving both the Italian component (-7.4%) and, to a lesser extent, the foreign component (-2.7%).
The main art destinations, mainly urban, play a decisive role in limiting the overall regional decline, recording a 10.5% increase in visitor numbers, thanks to the strong growth in international flows, both non-European (+12.4%) and European (+10.6%). Next in terms of intensity are mountain resorts (+9.6%), although there are differences between individual destinations. The European component (+13.2%) stands out in particular, providing the largest contribution to overall growth, a sign of the evolution of experiential and territorial products that are increasingly competitive on an international level. Although these flows still have a limited impact on the overall regional dynamic due to their specific weight, they play a fundamental role in the socio-economic sustainability of local communities.
In the case of hilly areas, overall growth was very moderate (+0.9%), mainly driven by non-European markets (+5.4%) and Tuscan tourists (+1.8%). On the other hand, there were slight decreases in demand from outside the region (-0.9%) and from European markets (-0.5%), which are traditionally the main attractions of these areas. The seaside areas also confirmed the decline already observed in the first five months of the year (-6.0%), caused in particular by the drop in European visitors (-6.4%), Tuscan visitors (-8.3%) and Italians not resident in Tuscany (-5.1%). Over the last two years, a problem of competitiveness seems to have emerged, especially in segments of demand that are sensitive to price variables, a phenomenon accentuated by inflation, stagnant incomes, and the growth of alternative Mediterranean destinations with more favorable price levels.
An analysis of the summer period (June-September) confirms trends similar to those overall: the regional variation stands at -1.7%, with a marked decline in seaside destinations (-5.3%), substantial stability in hilly areas (+0.4%) and good results recorded by both art destinations (+8.5%) and mountain destinations (+10.2%), although the data appears to depend on the dynamics of specific territories and will be subject to review.
